Soybean prices have found solid footing in recent weeks, mainly due to the strength in soybean oil markets. However, gains have been moderated by ongoing U.S. planting progress and large inventories in South America. Technical factors and uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics—especially U.S.-China relations—have also influenced market sentiment.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC) in its May 22 report, global soybean export prices have remained largely flat compared to the previous month. Argentina’s falling prices were offset by modest gains in Brazil and the United States. The IGC noted that Chicago spot soybean futures traded slightly firmer, although price action was largely technical in nature. Notably, market confidence was temporarily supported in late April by news that both the U.S. and China had significantly reduced tariffs for a 90-day period.

Soybean oil prices provided additional support for the market. Still, the presence of abundant supplies in South America and strong planting progress in the U.S. exerted downward pressure. Export prices varied by region:

• U.S. Gulf FOB prices increased slightly to $418 per ton
• Brazil (Paranagua) prices rose 2% month-over-month to $406 per ton
• Argentina (Up River) prices fell 3% to $396 per ton, enhancing Argentina’s export competitiveness

Meanwhile, the canola market has also experienced bullish momentum. The IGC highlighted that ICE canola futures in Canada climbed 6% month-over-month, driven by tightening old-crop supplies and rising vegetable oil prices. Physical prices followed suit:

• FOB Vancouver prices increased $26 to $555 per ton
• Australian (Kwinana) canola offers also rose accordingly

From a broader perspective, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported a 2.3% rise in global vegetable oil prices in April compared to March, and nearly 21% higher than in April 2024. Despite the gains in soybean and rapeseed oil, falling palm oil prices—due to seasonal production increases in Southeast Asia—tempered the overall growth. Sunflower oil prices remained relatively stable but continued to trade well above last year’s levels due to reduced exports from the Black Sea region.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a strong 2025–26 season for oilseeds. In its May 2025 Oilseed Outlook, the USDA expects:

• Global oilseed production to rise by 14.9 million tons to reach 692 million tons
• Soybean production alone to hit a record 426.8 million tons
• Rapeseed output to recover to 89.6 million tons
• Sunflowerseed production to climb to 56.2 million tons

The USDA also forecasts that world oilseed trade will increase by 6.8 million tons to 215.1 million tons, led by higher exports of soybean, groundnut, and sunflowerseed. Oilseed crushing is expected to expand by 18.4 million tons to 580.5 million tons, with soybean processing accounting for 67% of this growth.

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